Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.’s intrinsic value snapshot
Stress test Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.’s valuation with a discounted cash flow model seeded by live fundamentals. Adjust free cash flow growth, discount rates, and terminal assumptions to gauge upside versus market pricing.
Data snapshot
Live fundamentals preloaded for this ticker
Recently reported cash flow, revenue, share count, and price figures for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. populate the model automatically. Adjust any assumption to tailor the projection.
Core assumptions
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Growth roadmap
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Enter annual growth expectations (as percentages). Defaults fade linearly from 8% toward 4%.
Intrinsic value
$18.18
-40.7% vs market price
Market price: $30.64
Shares: 22.95M
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s intrinsic value screens at $18.18 per share based on the inputs above. The model compares this against the latest market quote ($30.64) and suggests a -40.7% variance. Stress test these assumptions using the sensitivity matrix and pair with qualitative due diligence before acting.
Cash flow projection
Present value| Year | FCF projection | Discount factor | Discounted value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $25.1M | 0.909 | $22.9M |
| Year 2 | $27.0M | 0.826 | $22.3M |
| Year 3 | $29.0M | 0.751 | $21.8M |
| Year 4 | $30.9M | 0.683 | $21.1M |
| Year 5 | $32.8M | 0.621 | $20.4M |
| Year 6 | $34.7M | 0.564 | $19.6M |
| Year 7 | $36.6M | 0.513 | $18.8M |
| Year 8 | $38.4M | 0.467 | $17.9M |
| Year 9 | $40.1M | 0.424 | $17.0M |
| Year 10 | $41.7M | 0.386 | $16.1M |
| Terminal value | $569.4M | — | $219.5M |
| Total NPV | — | — | $417.3M |
Cash flow projection
Present value| Year | FCF projection | Discount factor | Discounted value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $25.1M | 0.909 | $22.9M |
| Year 2 | $27.0M | 0.826 | $22.3M |
| Year 3 | $29.0M | 0.751 | $21.8M |
| Year 4 | $30.9M | 0.683 | $21.1M |
| Year 5 | $32.8M | 0.621 | $20.4M |
| Year 6 | $34.7M | 0.564 | $19.6M |
| Year 7 | $36.6M | 0.513 | $18.8M |
| Year 8 | $38.4M | 0.467 | $17.9M |
| Year 9 | $40.1M | 0.424 | $17.0M |
| Year 10 | $41.7M | 0.386 | $16.1M |
| Terminal value | $569.4M | — | $219.5M |
| Total NPV | — | — | $417.3M |
Sensitivity analysis
Δ Growth vs Δ Discount| Δ discount → | -2.0% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | $21.54 | $18.19 | $15.73 | $13.85 | $12.37 |
| -1.0% | $23.28 | $19.60 | $16.91 | $14.85 | $13.23 |
| 0.0% | $25.16 | $21.13 | $18.18 | $15.93 | $14.16 |
| 1.0% | $27.19 | $22.77 | $19.55 | $17.09 | $15.16 |
| 2.0% | $29.38 | $24.55 | $21.03 | $18.35 | $16.24 |
Adjustments show intrinsic value per share when growth/discount rate assumptions shift by ±1–2 percentage points relative to your base case.
Methodology & resources
Cash flows are projected annually using your growth inputs, discounted at the selected rate, and combined with a Gordon Growth terminal value. Share counts rely on the latest reported shares outstanding. Terminal growth must remain below the discount rate to maintain model stability. Always validate assumptions before making investment decisions.
Intrinsic value playbook
Build a valuation stack that pairs DCF work with core fundamentals and capital structure context.
Sensitivity analysis
| Discount Δ ↴ / Growth Δ → | -2.0% | -1.0% | ±0% | +1.0% | +2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0% | $21.54 | $23.28 | $25.16 | $27.19 | $29.38 |
| -1.0% | $18.19 | $19.60 | $21.13 | $22.77 | $24.55 |
| ±0% | $15.73 | $16.91 | $18.18 | $19.55 | $21.03 |
| +1.0% | $13.85 | $14.85 | $15.93 | $17.09 | $18.35 |
| +2.0% | $12.37 | $13.23 | $14.16 | $15.16 | $16.24 |
Want the cost of capital too?
Open the WACC calculator to align your discount rate assumptions with live capital structure inputs.